6 Months of Rising Property Prices: The 3 Shocking Signals Everyone’s Missing (Are You Too Late?) [APS094]

Even though the RBA didn’t cut interest rates last month, the Australian property market has been quietly climbing again. As of July 2025, we’ve now seen six consecutive months of price increases. The growth doesn’t seem that dramatic. But when you connect the dots over the past few months, a clear trend begins to emerge — we’re already in a booming cycle. And here’s the catch — July has brought a few signals that suggest the entire market could be approaching a critical point. So the question is: Where exactly are we right now in this property cycle? Is it too late to get in? If you buy now, are you chasing the peak, or is this actually the perfect entry point? The answers to these questions may already be hidden in three surprising indicators: A rising unemployment rate, Inflation that continues to fall month by month, And a steadily declining job mobility rate — people are changing jobs less often.

More importantly, the RBA’s next interest rate decision is just around the corner — scheduled for next week. Will we finally see the beginning of rapid-fire rate cuts? And if so, could that be the spark that launches the next wave of property price surges? In today’s episode, we’re going to break down exactly what happened in the Australian housing market throughout July. Not just the numbers — but the deeper trends, the hidden traps, the real opportunities, and the logic behind the decisions that investors are making right now.

By the end of this video, you might not have chosen the exact property you want to buy — but you’ll be ahead of 95% of buyers in understanding where the market is heading.

The Housing Market Continued to Rise in July

In July 2025, Australia’s property market kept climbing, extending the trend we’ve seen over the past few months. Prices rose another 0.6%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth.

The national housing market hit rock bottom back in December 2024, when prices dipped by just 0.1%. But that slight drop turned out to be the turning point. Since then, the market has entered a crucial rebound phase. In January, February, and March, we saw prices not only rise, but accelerate. The real turning point was in February. April, however, saw a slight pullback in momentum, largely due to uncertainty around the federal election and the waning effect of February’s rate cut. But once the election settled and we saw another rate cut, prices rose again in June. July simply followed that same trend, rising another 0.6%, identical to June’s pace — again, likely because the latest rate cut's impact is already starting to fade. Still, when you connect the curve across the past few months, the upward trend is crystal clear.

In Sydney, prices rose by 0.6% in July, the same as in June. No acceleration, but no slowdown either — just steady growth. Melbourne’s momentum was a bit softer. Prices there rose 0.4%, slightly lower than the 0.5% in June, bringing it back into what we at AusPropertyStrategy call the “flat zone” — between +0.5% and -0.5%. But again, if you draw a line through the past few months, the overall trajectory still points clearly upwards.

Now let’s look at the three mid-sized capital cities. Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth have all been rising consistently for over two years. Their growth briefly bottomed out in February — but even then, they still posted gains. From March through July, they’ve accelerated every single month.

In July, Brisbane rose by 0.7%, showing very strong momentum. Perth jumped 0.9%, accelerating even faster than the other two. Adelaide matched Brisbane, with another solid 0.7% rise. At this point, it’s quite clear — Brisbane and Perth have completed a classic V-shaped rebound, all without experiencing a single month of negative growth. Just like we predicted in our 2024 annual market wrap livestream back in November. To those who’ve been worried — for the last two years — that these cities might have already peaked: Well, if you didn’t buy back then, the opportunity is still running… because this rally isn’t over yet.

Now onto the three smaller capital cities, where things are playing out a little differently. Hobart hasn’t shown a clear rising trend just yet. Its prices have gone up and down over the past two years. But overall, the trend is improving. Darwin, on the other hand, is still in full-blown surge mode. It soared by 2.2% in July alone, making it the most explosive performer out of all eight capitals. Finally, we’ve got Canberra, which saw a small pullback in July — up 0.5%, down slightly from the previous month. This makes the current cycle in Canberra a bit harder to pin down. Over the past two years, it’s been swinging back and forth — a few months up, a few months down — repeating in small cycles.

When it comes to understanding the bigger picture, the best way to look at market direction is not by tracking monthly changes, but by watching the 90-day moving average. Why? Because when you zoom out to a full quarter, the noise from short-term jumps and dips fades away — and the real trend becomes much clearer. If we look at the chart, the major and mid-sized cities are already in a full-blown upward cycle. Even Hobart, which has been swinging back and forth for years, is now showing signs of being in an upward phase.

On that chart, you’ll also see five green circles. These mark the five key points over the past five years when I made major market predictions — and each one of them turned out to be correct. If you’ve been watching our monthly livestreams regularly, you’ve witnessed every single one of those calls and how they played out.

As of the time of this recording, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin have all officially reached new all-time highs in property prices. Melbourne is still 3.4% below its peak from March 2022. Hobart is down 10.4%, and Canberra is 5.2% off its peak. And this brings me to a very important mental trap that many new investors in the Australian property market tend to fall into.

Let’s say you come across an agent — whether they sell new homes, second-hand homes, or act as a buyer’s agent — who only deals in Melbourne properties. Of course, they’ll do everything they can to convince you that “now is the time to buy in Melbourne,” because the market is down and it’s a “good entry point.” Or, someone else might say, “Perth is already at its peak — you absolutely shouldn’t buy now.” Both of these ways of thinking are flawed. Just because a market is at an all-time high doesn’t mean it can’t go higher in the next few years. And just because a city is at a relative low, doesn’t mean it won’t stay flat for the next two years.

If you want to figure it out yourself, this is where you need to start studying where the economy and policy settings are headed — because those are what really drive long-term market movements. But let’s be honest — most people can’t analyse these things on their own.

There are a few different mindsets among property influencers in Australia today, especially those using social media for promotion. First, there are people who don’t understand the market but think they do. They speak with confidence, but don’t realise they’re misleading their audience — and unfortunately, this group makes up the majority on short video platforms. Second, there are people who actually do understand the market, but because their business is narrowly focused, they have to say only one type of property is good. For example, buyer’s agents who only buy second-hand properties, will say second-hand properties are better than new ones. Or agents who only sell Melbourne new builds will say Melbourne is the best. They simply can’t afford to say anything else — because if they do, they won’t make any money. This group is smaller, but far more dangerous — because they’re knowingly being misleading. I’m not saying all real estate agents in Australia are bad — but it’s rare to find ones who truly follow the rules and operate with integrity.

Here is a more practical tip whenever you’re deciding whether to believe a property influencer or not — first look at what they’re selling. If someone is a buyer’s agent only helping people buy in Melbourne, and they say Melbourne is the best city to invest in — you need to be cautious. If someone helps clients buy properties under $500,000, and they say “the best investments are under $500k” — you have to question that too.

That’s exactly why AusPropertyStrategy’s product range covers all of Australia — new builds, second-hand homes, prices from $300k all the way to $7–8 million — matched to what each VISION Member actually needs. Because we’re not locked into just one location, one property type or one price point, we don’t have to twist our analysis. We can call it like it is.

Auction Clearance Rates & Rental Yields

In terms of auction clearance rates, July was even hotter, rising to 68.5%. Since February, clearance rates have been steadily climbing, a clear sign the market is heating up fast. But here’s something to keep in mind: When you're looking at auction data, it’s best to only focus on Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, because their transaction volumes are high enough to reflect real market demand. Cities like Perth have too few auctions to draw reliable conclusions, so you can pretty much ignore those numbers.

As for rental yields, not much changed in July. The national average remained at 3.7%. Sydney had the lowest yield at 3.0%, because prices are high. Darwin had the highest — 6.4%, still leading the nation. Adelaide, Brisbane, and Melbourne all hovered around 3.7%. Based on current interest rates, assuming an 80% LVR and long-term rental, only Darwin is producing positive cash flow right now. But positive cash flow alone should never be your only reason for buying a property. Capital growth, long-term stability, local population, economic strength, and industry diversity — all of those factors matter just as much.

Overall, there wasn’t anything too surprising about July’s market performance. It played out almost exactly as expected. But what did surprise me… was the set of economic data released in July. That data changed how I see the market moving forward. The numbers line up. They reinforce each other. And together, they suggest one thing: The next interest rate cut is now almost inevitable.

If you have any questions about property investment, please book a free 15-minute discovery call on our website. If you want a team offering one-stop service to help you build a property investment portfolio, achieve financial freedom and retire early, join our VISION Membership by booking a 30-minute obligation-free discovery session to start with. Or to keep it simple, our data-driven buyer's agency service can help. We buy and manage properties for our clients anywhere in Australia. Links to the service are in the description below.

The Reserve Bank’s last cash rate decision was completely unexpected. All the economic indicators at the time were pointing in one clear direction — a rate cut. But the RBA didn’t move. One of the arguments they used was that Inflation in Q2 would come in higher than expected. And this was before the Australian Bureau of Statistics had even released the official data. At the time, I guessed that maybe the RBA had gotten an early look at the numbers. But now that the actual data is out — it turns out the RBA’s estimate was completely wrong.

Inflation Continues to Fall

Since the peak in 2022, Inflation has been dropping sharply. In Q2 of this year, the trimmed mean CPI fell from 2.9% to 2.7%, the lowest level since Q4 2021. Looking more closely, June’s trimmed mean CPI dropped again from 2.4% in May to 2.1%, now sitting at the bottom end of the RBA’s 2–3% target range. So purely from an inflation standpoint, we should already be cutting rates. We’ve also been closely watching construction costs, which have barely moved: up just 0.4% year-on-year, and 0.2% month-on-month in July. In other words, the recent rise in new home prices is being driven almost entirely by land values, which is actually a very healthy sign.

Unemployment is Rising

Now let’s talk about unemployment. After holding steady at low levels for months, the job market has finally shifted. In June, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. You might think that’s a small change — just a number. But behind that number is a trend that’s honestly a bit alarming. Is this really what the job market looks like now? 

Employment is one of the most important measures of economic health. And if you want to fully understand what’s happening, you need to look at three key indicators.

1. Unemployment

This refers to people aged 15 and over who had no work in the past week and actively looked for a job in the past 4 weeks. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the total working-age population. The latest figure is 4.2%. That’s not historically high for Australia — but it’s clear that unemployment is rising.

That 0.1% increase in June represents 34,000 more people unable to find work. And the reality is even worse: A large number of people lost full-time jobs — many of them are now counted as “employed” because they were pushed into part-time roles. That shows the job market is softening. And remember — the RBA has a dual mandate: one of them is to support employment. The higher the unemployment rate goes, the more pressure the RBA feels to cut rates.

2. Underemployment

This includes people who have jobs but want to work more hours — mostly part-time employees, or people whose skills are far beyond the jobs they’re doing — like a PhD driving an Uber. The underemployment rate is the share of the working-age population in this situation. A higher underemployment rate shows the workforce isn’t being used efficiently —

which means the economy isn’t strong. In June, Australia’s underemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 6%, forming a clear bottoming-out and rebound pattern.

3. Job Mobility Rate

This one’s easy to understand — it tells us whether people are changing jobs or not. The RBA uses job mobility as an indicator of confidence and opportunity. It’s calculated as the percentage of workers who changed jobs last year. A low mobility rate means fewer people are switching roles. That means workers are staying longer in the same job, not because they want to — but because they’re afraid to leave. It reflects low confidence, limited opportunities, and a weak job market.

The latest data from the ABS shows that 1 in 10 Australians has stayed in the same job for over 20 years.

The current job mobility rate is just under 8%. That’s only a little over 1 million people changing jobs last year. In 2023, that number was 9.6%. So what does 8% really mean? Back in the 1990s, before Australia’s last major recession, job mobility was around 20% — people felt secure, confident they could get better roles, higher pay, and move up. But when the recession started, it dropped to 12%, and then quickly down to 8%, when people were just happy to have any job at all. And that’s where we are now — 8%. This is why so many economists are saying Australia has actually been in a silent recession for two years already.

RBA’s Next Meeting: Rate Cut or Not?

The RBA meeting is coming up next week. And by this point, it should be obvious — a rate cut is almost a given. But here’s the catch…The financial markets are still split. Right now, the odds of a rate cut are just 51% — a coin toss. Why? Because we’ve only been looking at what’s happening inside Australia — and ignoring what’s happening outside.

Starting August 1, the new U.S. tariff policies have officially taken effect. But their impact will take time to play out. What the RBA is really afraid of is not risk, but uncertainty. In my own opinion, I do believe we’ll see a rate cut next week. But as for what the RBA actually does —

we’ll have to wait and see.

For all our AusPropertyStrategy channel fans — we’re excited to launch our very first webinar in the APS Market Insights series! It’s happening on Thursday, September 4th at 8 PM Sydney time.  In this live session, we’ll break down everything that’s been happening in the Australian housing market throughout August — including key trends, local economic fundamentals, and what’s happening globally that could affect property prices here at home. We’ll wrap up with a live Q&A — so you can ask me anything (and maybe even test whether I’m an AI-generated host!). Seats are limited, so make sure to register now on our website — or just hit the link in the description below.

Watch the video version of the blog on YouTube.

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